Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles With Putin Concerning Ukraine

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."

• Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
• Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington without results

The frequently changing meeting is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.