Polls Open in the Netherlands as Polls Point to Possible Second Victory for Firebrand Leader Geert Wilders

Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.